Q3 Macro Presentation: Rolling Swells

On Thursday October 12, Narwhal Capital presented its Q4 Markets and Economic Outlook presentation at its office: “Rolling swells”.

The presentation began with a discussion of the current state of the economy: employment is sound, consumer spending is normalizing, and there are some signs of life in sectors that have been hit by rising interest rates.

It continued with an analysis of what a rolling recession looks like and how the impact of higher interest rates wends its way throughout the economy. Interest rates haven’t treated sectors of the economy or markets equally. In some cases, earnings have declined and in others earnings have increased. And yet, the market returns on the stocks have varied widely. Utility stocks, for instance, have seen their earnings rise but the stock prices collapse as the amount investors pay for every dollar of earnings has declined.

We conclude with various portfolio implications – how to treat fixed income exposures and manage around the rolling swells to optimize equity allocations.

The full annotated PDF is available here.