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Jan 17, 2020

Q4 2019 Macro Presentation: What You See

Q4 2019 Macro Presentation: What You See

On January 17, 2020, Narwhal Capital released its Q4 2019 Macro Review and Outlook. The commentary contained therein is the firm's opinion at the time of publication and not intended to be investment advice.

Our theme for this is quarter is the difference between "what you look at and what you see." The double meaning with the launch of a variety of streaming services in 2019 was too tempting to resist.

The commentary is divided into 3 parts.

In part 1, we review what actually happened in 2019. We, of course, discuss the strong market rally and what drove that. But we also touch on some of the underlying economic data which, in a few cases, is less rosy than "DOW 30,000" would suggest. We look at what states created the most jobs and which sectors of the economy saw slower job growth than they have been accustomed.

In part 2, we look at what the cards might hold for 2020. We discuss sentiment and the important inflection point analysts see that points to the direction of future earnings growth. We consult JP Morgan Chase's CEO Jamie Dimon for his perspective on the direction of the economy. We list some of the important ways in which 2020 could be another knock-out year or much worse.

In part 3, we take a stab at predicting the five most important stories in 2020. We, of course, touch on Brexit and the US election but we also discuss the Federal Reserve and how America's Central Bank might behave in the year ahead.

Finally, we conclude with important takeaways and an update on Narwhal. Internally, 2019 was a good year for employee growth and strong teamwork and we are excited for the year ahead. We look forward to rolling out some new features and services for clients and, as always, are at the end of a phone (or Roselane St) to take your call, talk stocks/bonds, or simply catch up.

Please click on the link below to view the PDF.

4Q19 NCM Macro

Benjamin Nye, CFA, FRM

Chief Investment Officer, Portfolio Manager

Ben arrived at Narwhal from a small investment firm in Eugene, Oregon, where he cut his teeth investing in individual stocks, bonds and derivatives. He earned the right to use the CFA designation in 2016, holds his Series 65 license and is a certified Financial Risk Manager. Ben received a bachelor’s degree in finance from the University of Washington and a MBA from Emory University's Goizueta Business School. In his free time, he plays competitive tennis, mentors for Mentoring for Leadership and is a frequent contributor to The Investing Podcast.

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