Q3 2019 Macro Presentation: What's the Deal?

On October 22, 2019, Narwhal Capital released its Q3 2019 Review for public consumption. The commentary contained therein is the firm’s opinion at the time of publication and not intended to be investment advice.

The commentary is divided into 3 parts.

In part 1, we review all the events that happened in a very busy third quarter. We talk about the rapid move to more dovish monetary policy, Brexit haranguing, domestic politics, and what's going on in the underlying economy. We conclude that, despite central bankers begging for fiscal policy to share more of the burden in the economy, we are ultimately resorting back to the printing press.

Part 2 really tries to delve into what is making this economy tick, gauging sentiment and confidence across all facets of the economy. What we discover is that significant divergences have arisen between the consumer and the business. We have also seen a disconnect between the manufacturing side of the economy and the services side of the economy. Looking at markets, macro indicators, and surveys we ultimately determine that confidence is playing an outsized role in the current state of affairs.

The 3rd section is all about the catalysts. We look at what the biggest stories are and try to assess the likelihood they will be resolved favorably or unfavorably.

Whether it was Boeing, antitrust issues in large technology companies, tariffs or auto worker unions, you can't say the third quarter was boring. Please click on the link below to view the PDF.

3Q19 NCM Macro