Q2 2020 Macro Presentation: Phase Change

On July 20, 2020 Narwhal Capital released its Q2 2020 Macro Review and Outlook. The commentary contained therein is the firm's opinion at the time of publication and not intended to be investment advice.

You can view the replay on YouTube.

Out theme for this quarter is "Phase Change." Just as matter phase transitions exist - ice to water, for example - there are also economic and financial phase changes - from bullish to bearish, or recession to expansion. This presentation attempts to map out what the current phase transition looks like.

The commentary is divided into three parts.

In part 1, we establish what the current phase is. We first examine markets, in which we see one of the most stunning discrepancies between growth stocks and value stocks that we have seen in recent memory. We also look at the real economy and establish where we stand in terms of jobs, cost of living and housing markets. We finish with a review of the current state of COVID in the US and in Georgia.

Part 2 outlines the transition and we make a point of noting that phase changes come along with elevated levels of potential energy, with the prospect for a heightened kinetic output as one emerges from the transition. Again, we look at where the economy stands in terms of current financial conditions. We also look at the current level of uncertainty among politicians, monetary policymakers, and C-suite executives.

Finally, part 3 addresses the actionable opportunities we are pursuing within both fixed income and equities in the context of the phase to which we are proceeding. We discuss a few examples of individual investments. And, as a bonus, we introduce you to three new members of the Narwhal team.

Please click on the link below to view the PDF.

2Q20 NCM Macro