Q2 2019 Macro Presentation: Turn off the Mics

On July 19, 2019, Narwhal Capital released its Q2 2019 Review for public consumption. The commentary contained therein is the firm's opinion at the time of publication and not intended to be investment advice.

The commentary is divided into 3 parts.

In part 1, we discuss the "best and worst of times". The market had a couple significant ups and a very significant down. We look at what drove this volatility and if it is something that needs to concern us in future. We talk about the impact the threat of tariffs had and how that negatively impacted sentiment, but positively impacted bond prices. Finally, we show the substantial degree of pessimism that reached dramatic levels in early June.

Part 2 is all about what actually is going on when we turn off the media talking heads, the tweets and the threats. We show that perception is not always reality but there are times when perception can create reality. We discuss the rising fear that impacted the decision-making of C-suite executives and global investment fund managers. And we talk about an interesting divergence in how businesses see their own prospects relative to how they see the rest of the economy.

The 3rd section is all micro. We review a trip Andrew and Ben made to New York City, how they met with the management team of one of our (thankfully) more successful positions and how Narwhal looks at its portfolio companies.

Please click on the link below to view the PDF.

2Q19 Macro Outlook