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Apr 25, 2019

Q1 2019 Macro Presentation: On the Wings of a Dove

Q1 2019 Macro Presentation: On the Wings of a Dove

On April 25, 2019, Narwhal Capital released its Q1 2019 Review for public consumption. The commentary contained therein is the firm's opinion at the time of publication and not intended to be investment advice.

The commentary is dividend into 3 parts.

In part 1, we discuss the "Great Reversals" that took place in just three short months. The Federal Reserve's shift to a more dovish, market-friendly monetary policy took many of the headlines but there were other reversals as well, including at the European Central Bank, the improved performance of European and emerging market equities, and bearish sentiment, which fell from a local high of 50% to a low of 20%. Finally, we show how fund managers have reacted to the recent news and market movements.

In part 2, we bring it back home and talk jobs, wages and spending. We show which industries are generating the jobs (spoiler alert: it's not in finance) and which areas of the country are seeing wages grow the fastest. We look at how the average consumer's budget has evolved over the past decade and how non-store retailers like Amazon have disrupted traditional retail sales.

In part 3, we remind readers that in times like these it is worth keeping things in perspective. We review the economic cycle, with a particular focus on potential turning points. We also look at a few areas where economic data is actually resulting in positive surprises. And we think those countries will raise a few eyebrows for our readers.

Please click on the link below to view the PDF.

1Q19 Macro Outlook

Benjamin Nye, CFA, FRM

Chief Investment Officer, Portfolio Manager

Ben arrived at Narwhal from a small investment firm in Eugene, Oregon, where he cut his teeth investing in individual stocks, bonds and derivatives. He earned the right to use the CFA designation in 2016, holds his Series 65 license and is a certified Financial Risk Manager. Ben received a bachelor’s degree in finance from the University of Washington and a MBA from Emory University's Goizueta Business School. In his free time, he plays competitive tennis, mentors for Mentoring for Leadership and is a frequent contributor to The Investing Podcast.

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