Q3 2018 Macro Presentation

On October 24, 2018, Narwhal Capital released its 88-slide 3rd Quarter Macro Review and Outlook for 2018 for public consumption. The commentary contained therein is the firm's opinion at the time of publication and not intended to be investment advice.

The commentary is divided into 4 parts.

In part 1, we review the current state of the US economy, providing an in-depth, line-by-line, data-driven analysis of the factors that impact GDP, where they are, and where economists expect them to go. In this section, we dive into the impact of mortgage rates on housing starts, the leveling off in new vehicle sales, as well as the implications of new trade policies and rising State & Local tax receipts.

In part 2, the markets take center stage as we discuss the serious corrections in both European and Asian equity markets as well as the impact of rising currency volatility. We then move on to interest rates and our views on whether the Fed's rate hikes are too aggressive or not aggressive enough. Finally, we bring it home to US equity markets. After a strong first nine months to the year, is the pullback over the last few weeks a sign of things to come or an opportunity to buy the dip once again? We debate the bull and the bear arguments.

In part 3, we discuss the upcoming midterm elections and their implications on both economic growth and equity markets. Both Republicans and Democrats have reason for optimism heading into the elections. We outline those reasons.

Finally, in part 4, we provide a few predictions that could easily be far off-the-mark. We make a contrarian opinion on one asset class and make a very much mainstream pick for the NCAA football champion.

Please click on the link below to view the PDF.

3Q18 NCM Macro