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Oct 24, 2018

Q3 2018 Macro Presentation

Q3 2018 Macro Presentation

On October 24, 2018, Narwhal Capital released its 88-slide 3rd Quarter Macro Review and Outlook for 2018 for public consumption. The commentary contained therein is the firm's opinion at the time of publication and not intended to be investment advice.

The commentary is divided into 4 parts.

In part 1, we review the current state of the US economy, providing an in-depth, line-by-line, data-driven analysis of the factors that impact GDP, where they are, and where economists expect them to go. In this section, we dive into the impact of mortgage rates on housing starts, the leveling off in new vehicle sales, as well as the implications of new trade policies and rising State & Local tax receipts.

In part 2, the markets take center stage as we discuss the serious corrections in both European and Asian equity markets as well as the impact of rising currency volatility. We then move on to interest rates and our views on whether the Fed's rate hikes are too aggressive or not aggressive enough. Finally, we bring it home to US equity markets. After a strong first nine months to the year, is the pullback over the last few weeks a sign of things to come or an opportunity to buy the dip once again? We debate the bull and the bear arguments.

In part 3, we discuss the upcoming midterm elections and their implications on both economic growth and equity markets. Both Republicans and Democrats have reason for optimism heading into the elections. We outline those reasons.

Finally, in part 4, we provide a few predictions that could easily be far off-the-mark. We make a contrarian opinion on one asset class and make a very much mainstream pick for the NCAA football champion.

Please click on the link below to view the PDF.

3Q18 NCM Macro

Benjamin Nye, CFA, FRM

Chief Investment Officer, Portfolio Manager

Ben arrived at Narwhal from a small investment firm in Eugene, Oregon, where he cut his teeth investing in individual stocks, bonds and derivatives. He earned the right to use the CFA designation in 2016, holds his Series 65 license and is a certified Financial Risk Manager. Ben received a bachelor’s degree in finance from the University of Washington and a MBA from Emory University's Goizueta Business School. In his free time, he plays competitive tennis, mentors for Mentoring for Leadership and is a frequent contributor to The Investing Podcast.

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